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The British Conservative Party and Europe: The Choosing of John Major

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 July 1998

Philip Cowley
Affiliation:
Centre for Legislative Studies, University of Hull
John Garry
Affiliation:
Trinity College, Dublin

Extract

This article provides an empirical analysis of voting behaviour in the second ballot of the 1990 Conservative leadership contest that resulted in John Major becoming party leader and prime minister. Seven hypotheses of voting behaviour are generated from the extant literature relating voting to socio-economic variables (occupational and educational background), political variables (parliamentary experience, career status, age and electoral marginality) and ideological variables (drawn from survey data on MPs' positions on economic, European and moral issues). These hypotheses are tested using data on voting intentions gathered from published lists of MPs' declarations, interviews with each of the leadership campaign teams, and correspondence with MPs. Bivariate relationships are presented, followed by logistic regression analysis to isolate the unique impact that each variable had on voting. This shows that educational background, parliamentary experience and (especially) attitudes to Europe were the key factors determining voting. The importance of Europe in the contest is particularly instructive: the severe problems for Major's leadership which were caused by the issue can be attributed to, and understood in the context of, the 1990 contest in which he became leader.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 1998

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Footnotes

An earlier version of this article – ‘From Handbag to Underpants’ – was read to a workshop in the Centre for Legislative Studies in April 1997. The authors are grateful to the participants of that workshop and Michael Laver, Michael Marsh, Philip Norton, Ed Page and Mark Stuart for comments and assistance. They would also like to thank the many MPs who gave up their time to help with the research.